| This past Friday, Almanac featured the two top finishers in last week's DFL preference ballot, R.T. Rybak and Margaret Anderson Kelliher. During that show, Rybak and Kelliher did little to encourage any other candidates into the top tier -- a heads-up race sounds like it's just fine with both candidates.
Contrasts were on display during Friday's Almanac, and so are parallels to the 2008 Democratic presidential contest. Those parallels go way beyond the candidates' genders.
No, Rybak-as-Obama and MAK-as-Clinton isn't just a matter of gubernatorial candidates sharing their presidential doppelgangers' chromosomal patterns. It goes to their approaches on the stump and their apparent strategies for winning the party's endorsement in April.
Catch how after the break. |
| Speaker Kelliher has focused heavily on her experience in the Legislature as a qualification for the corner office. Her speeches lean heavily on getting things done -- the Transportation bill, mental health reform, etc -- and bringing people together to do it. Her support from fellow legislator/superdelegates is not just a matter of familiarity -- many see her as having given them a huge assist by getting the legislative session done on time, keeping them from having to explain a special session to constituents in their districts. A not-very-visible political favor, but a big favor nonetheless.
In 2008, Sen. Hillary Clinton got an early boost from party regulars around the country, especially elected officials for whom she and former President Bill Clinton had worked in previous elections. She had a longer record of accomplishments in Washington D.C. than then-Sen. Barack Obama, who had spent just two years as her Senate colleague when they both started running for the White House.
Mayor Rybak, on the other hand, has focused on his experience working with diverse communities across Minneapolis, the most economically and culturally diverse town in the state. Rather than focusing on accomplishments in St. Paul (something he really can't do) he focuses on his executive experience working with community groups, especially those of color.
Presidential candidate Barack Obama's foray into the race depended initially upon his charismatic stump presence and a story of community organizing in Chicago. It was not until much later -- after a string of losses in blue-collar areas to Sen. Clinton -- that he picked up the economic populism that helped propel him to the nomination.
Kelliher also makes sure to mention her rural roots at least once and usually more -- the line "growing up on a farm..." is a common refrain. Rybak makes sure to mention his family roots in New Prague, but he's a city guy, and makes it clear he loves the city he leads.
So how will these parallels play out in the endorsement race?
The ultimate political answer: it depends. Obama won the 2008 caucuses with a flood of first-time caucus-goers -- somewhere around 200,000 of them. Turnout at this year's contest was an order of magnitude lower, but there was still a whiff of 2008 around Rybak's winning straw poll result. The key is that the straw poll was not binding, and thus the central question is "did Rybak's supporters sign up to move on to their Senate District conventions, or did they vote for Rybak in the straw poll and head home?" If one candidate or another has more committed supporters -- supporters who are willing to move on to the next level for their candidate -- then the straw poll means...well, not a lot.
Herein lies an advantage for the second-tier candidates as well -- the Tom Bakks, Matt Entenzas, John Martys, Tom Rukavinas, and Paul Thissens of the world. Although their straw poll results were disappointing, their supporters in that straw poll might be more committed than many who voted for the top-tier candidates. Although Kelliher has strong supporters, and Rybak does too, if there is any consolidation in the second tier, there could be a reasonably competitive three-way race for the endorsement. In this respect, I think Marty may have an advantage -- given his progressive record and strong base among the party's left wing, he's likely to be a second choice on a lot of Senate District delegates' minds.
So it's probably not the poll you expected....but you can leave your thoughts at the tone anyway. |
