| There are two polls out today that show Republicans gaining in Minnesota. A SurveyUSA poll shows Erik Paulsen barely leading Ashwin Madia, 45-44, and a Rasmussen poll shows Norm Coleman leading Al Franken and Dean Barkley, 43-39-14.
If these polls are accurate, they're good news for the Republicans. I'm withholding my judgement on that, though, because of some suspicious looking numbers in each.
Here's the problem in the Senate race:
Coleman has a two-point lead among male voters and a seven-point lead among women. A week ago the two candidates were tied among men, and Franken was ahead by eight points among women voters.
Coleman gained 15 points with women in the last week? Unlikely. I can well understand Franken doing more poorly among women than most Democrats, but he'll still probably win that demographic, as women tend to lean Democratic. More importantly, none of the attacks on Franken's treatment of women are new; there's no cause for a huge shift like this. |
In the CD3 race, Joe has already noted some of the problems:
...SurveyUSA seems to think that the electorate on Tuesday is likely to be 34% Democrats, 32% Republicans, and 30% independent-with-a-small-i. Call me skeptical. Barack Obama at the top of the ticket is carrying heavy coattails going into next week, and the electorate is more likely to be closer to 40% self-identified Democrats than it is to be 34%.
The other number I have a hard time believing in light of all the other polling we've seen this year is that just 79% of self-identified Democrats are behind Madia.
There's more, though. Swing State Project is also skeptical:
...like a lot of SUSA polls from Minnesota, there are weird things at work in the crosstabs. For instance, Paulsen takes a 44-41 lead among 18 to 34 year-olds (a group where Madia had held a 52-42 lead earlier in the month).
It seems that the kids just can't get enough of the GOP in Minnesota -- the kids who are square enough to answer their landline and talk to a robot pollster, at least. [emphasis added]
I would say, take these polls with a grain of salt. If they're accurate, they're great news for the GOP. They're not far off -- both races are incredibly close -- but I think these particular results skew Republican.
All the same, it couldn't hurt to be cautious. Donate or volunteer for Ashwin Madia today!
Originally posted to the Twin Cities Daily Liberal |
