Here's a quick reference list of MN Progressive Project interviews with the various DFL gubernatorial hopefuls, going all the way back to early 2007. No, that's not a typo!
Joe Bodell's Interviews with Candidates for Governor:
Occasional MN Governor Tim Pawlenty is about to sign an absentee ballot reform bill into law. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie pushed the effort through the state legislature. The bill will set uniform standards statewide for evaluating absentee ballots ... this was a major Republican complaint during the recount.
Here's Republican party chair Tony Sutton back in November 2009 commenting on the new absentee ballots which are easier to understand:
"Today's window dressing from Mark Ritchie can't change the fact that Minnesota's absentee ballot system remains broken. ... As a result of Ritchie's unacceptable failure to properly train local election officials, Minnesotans have been subject to appalling disparities in how absentee ballots are counted across the state."
[emphasis added]
(Star Tribune)
Republican MN-GOV candidate Tom Emmer was paradoxically outraged by this bill's passage.
Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Delano, voted against the election bill. Emmer, a GOP candidate for governor, said the measure lets the state take away too much local control.
"Our local officials are supposed to be in charge of their elections. Let's stop taking away that authority," Emmer said. "There's going to be one day when they wake up and say how did this happen? How did we turn all of this over to somebody else, and why are we operating under these not only ludicrous but onerous burdens that we've let somebody else create for us?"
(MPR)
Why is Emmer contradicting his own party line? That's because Emmer is running for higher office and is trying to separate himself from his opponent, Marty Seifert. Actually, Emmer used to support statewide absentee ballot procedures.
Republican lawmakers also question the process. Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Delano, says putting Supreme Court justices on the Canvassing Board forces them to bow out of the later, and binding, legal process that follows a recount.
He adds the board's deference to local elections officials made for troubling disparities from one place to another.
"How can you say you've done your job if it's true that there are counties where rejected absentee ballots were counted, and there are other counties where rejected absentee ballots weren't counted? Wouldn't you do it the same in every county? There's just too much grey," said Emmer.
[emphasis added]
(MPR)
Apparently, flip flops are standard practice for Republicans running for higher office.
Eric Black penned a piece yesterday noting the role the Renew.MN effort may have on the DFL gubernatorial endorsement, and it's worth a read. In that same vein, a reader wrote in and offered some more details from inside the effort:
my understanding is that reNEW folks will be free to vote as they like the first ballot, from the three endorsed candidates. At some point, whether it's after the first ballot or what, the reNEW delegates will make a decision as a group as to who to swing their support to. reNEW delegates sign a pledge that they are committed to supporting this process, which is no guarantee, of course, but does mean something.
...
I wouldn't assume that if Margaret is ahead on the first vote, reNEW swings that way, particularly because her lead is primarily due to automatic delegates. Also keep in mind that a number of reNEW people may have gotten through named candidate subcaucuses or subcaucuses without reNEW in them, which means that some of the "hard" numbers you have for the reNEW candidates could evaporate once reNEW swings to one candidate. This is a bit of a chicken-or-egg question, but it's interesting that the three top delegate counts are for reNEW candidates: perhaps partly because reNEW ended up endorsing the three strongest candidates, but perhaps partially due to reNEW's support as well: who knows.
When I wrote a post yesterday talking about validation for our delegate tracking efforts, I didn't expect quite so much conversation in the comments.
I am in no way complaining.
Two comments toward the end jumped out at me, this one:
I personally like this system better than a primary. This is a PARTY function and I do not want my party subject to the whims of low information voters manipulated by whoever has the largest campaign chest to buy advertising. The caucus/convention system is a manifestation of grassroots democracy of people who are active in the party. It is perfect? NO. Does it always make the right choice? NO. Can some working people be adversely affected? YES. But like I said, this is a PARTY function that is open to people who consider themselves PARTY members. It takes committment, it takes time, it takes effort. The ultimate fate of the party lies with the time, committment, and effort of its members.
Let the party insiders, hacks, groupies, special interests, and the odd real activist make their ceremonial endorsement. Then, let the people decide, "low information voters" and all. If a candidate can't survive a primary, they've got no business representing the DFL on the general election ballot.
I happen to agree with both of these statements. The endorsement can be a good thing, and the primary can be a good thing in the very same election cycle, especially if the party's endorsee can take the endorsement and create a real people-powered grassroots machine instead of leaning on it and hoping the party can do the campaign's work for it.
The best role I think we in the online space can fill is holding all the candidates at every stage of the race accountable for themselves, their platforms, and their campaigns -- to the most accountable and strongest progressive candidate (meaning policies and campaign strength too) go the spoils.
Politics in Minnesota is checking in on our delegate tracking efforts:
The Democratic side (as usual) is much murkier. But MN Progressive Project's Joe Bodell has put together a list of pledged delegates that campaign officials say is pretty accurate. By far the biggest chunk of delegates - 369 - are uncommitted to any candidate.
...
This tally, however, doesn't consider superdelegates, where Kelliher has a substantial lead over the other challengers. The upshot: no candidate is anywhere remotely close to the 60 percent level of support that will be needed to win the party's endorsement.
Thanks go to the "campaign officials" for the validation. Now to keep making these tallies more and more accurate as we get closer to next weekend's final big chunk of conventions.
The campaign that builds excitement is going to win. I think MAK has the best technical direction. MAK people have picked up on entering many subcaucuses to build a perception of huge support. (Expect 50 subcaucuses at conventions this weekend, as other campaigns follow suit.) I think Rybak has the best spirit and political theater. I saw that Ryback group doing the wave yesterday in subcaucuses. Rybak supporters left energized and happy.
Approximately 300 more DFL state convention delegates were elected this weekend -- so where does the gubernatorial endorsement race stand?
First, standard caveats apply: 970 delegates have been elected so far, and we have conventions that add up to 913. Of those 913, we have results covering 843.5 -- this means our results are not complete. That being said, they are complete enough to get a good idea of where things stand -- just not an exact one.
With that said, on to the totals:
Gubernatorial pledged delegates Uncommitted: 369
R.T. Rybak: 143.5
MAK: 137.5
Paul Thissen: 58.5
John Marty: 49
Tom Rukavina: 41
Matt Entenza: 25
Tom Bakk: 20
The full spreadsheet is posted below. Highlights from the weekend:
R.T Rybak obviously had a very solid weekend, going from about three delegates down to six delegates up in our count. The spreadsheet bears this out -- although Margaret Anderson Kelliher kept up her solid gains and is still comfortably in the overall lead due to superdelegate endorsements, Rybak had a very good day in the west metro suburbs and in Olmstead County, where he appears to have picked up 8 (!) delegates.
Nevertheless, MAK is still in the lead overall, and will likely lead on the first ballot in April. If you factor in the superdelegate endorsements we already know of, and accept Team MAK's claims that fifty more are waiting in the wings, she already has about 17% of the first ballot racked up. Figure in at least a strong portion of the uncommitted delegates to date, and she's approaching 30% already, which will be tough for anyone to beat.
John Marty had a great weekend too, making significant gains in pledged delegates in places like Rice and Itasca counties. He stopped by SD42 briefly during subcaucusing, and we chatted for a minute, during which I expressed my sincere appreciation for his engagement with the MPP community.
Paul Thissen stalled out a little bit in the suburban conventions. His wonderful wife Karen spoke on his behalf at several events on Saturday, but there's a pretty big gap in his section of the spreadsheet in the recent conventions. He'll have support at the convention, but right now he's closer to the second tier than he is to the first.
Props to the members of the Bakk/Choi subcaucus. Certain nomination for Best Subcaucus Name of 2010.
Renew.mn is going to be a player one way or the other. Do they endorse MAK after the first ballot and nip the floor fight in the bud? Do they move toward R.T. Rybak or Paul Thissen and oppose the probable first-ballot leader? Only the ReNew.MN delegates know...and there are quite a few of them.
I'll have an update on the three competitive congressional endorsement races either later today or tomorrow morning. Here's the full spreadsheet -- as always, if you see discrepancies or districts where we're missing delegate totals, help us complete the puzzle. This little project has only gotten to where it is because of the efforts of the entire MPP community, and that's how it will continue to be right through the DFL state convention.
I have SD42 covered -- if you're attending any of the others (either listed here or missing from my list) or otherwise have exact results (subcaucus names and delegate allotments for each) for any of them, you can report them in the comments on this post.
And remember that this is important stuff going on. That being said, whether because of that importance or because you're simply having fun, make sure it's a positive experience.
Since Reps. EriK Paulsen (R) and Tim Walz (D) raised the subject of lifting the moratorium on building new nuclear power plants in MN, I figured it was time to get statements from the DFL MN-GOV candidates on the subject. They all oppose lifting the moratorium except RT Rybak who didn't answer the question and doesn't want to rule it out.
Margaret Anderson-Kelliher - concerned about storage, MN should create clean energy jobs.
Mark Dayton - Lifting the moratorium would be an injustice placed upon future generations.
Matt Entenza - A centerpiece of his campaign has been green energy solutions.
John Marty - he wrote the moratorium bill, nuff said.
Tom Rukavina - for moratorium until we figure out national disposal situation.
RT Rybak - Maximize energy efficiency, conservation and renewable energy sources first, but doesn't want to take nuclear off the table. RT wants the moratorium.
Paul Thissen - MN should lead in green technologies.
I've gotten a couple of requests to include the superdelegates -- elected officials and state party leaders who automatically get votes at the DFL state convention in April -- in our running tally. In addition, I did get some numbers back from those County Unit conventions where I previously only had Paul Thissen's numbers, so the inflation factor there has dropped a little bit.
If we include the superdelegates, here's what we have right now:
Candidate
Pledged
Super
Total
MAK
82.5
45
127.5
R.T. Rybak
79.5
1
80.5
Paul Thissen
48
4
52
Tom Rukavina
29
3
32
Tom Bakk
13.5
18
31.5
John Marty
26
4
30
Matt Entenza
4*
11
15*
Entenza gets an asterisk because I know for a fact I'm missing a few pledged delegates in his total -- I just can't get confirmation on them. However, he's still trailing the leading candidates in the delegate chase by a pretty hefty margin.
The elected delegates so far plus the superdelegates who have publicly endorsed a candidate represent about 45% of the total delegates who will be eligible to vote on the endorsement (~630/~1400). Like it or hate it, the superdelegates get votes, and when you include them Margaret Anderson Kelliher has a big advantage already -- but as we've said several times already, there are a LOT of uncommitted delegates out there still, as there will continue to be in the next few rounds of conventions starting this weekend.
As promised, we've gotten what appear to be accurate reports from Sunday's conventions, and also knocked a couple of previous conventions off the board (Blue Earth CU, Morrison CU, Lac Qui Parle CU). We've also corrected a 1-delegate discrepancy from SD60, and thanks are due to the eagle-eyed Marty supporter who caught it.
The updated totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
195
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
77.5
R.T. Rybak
72
Paul Thissen
47
Tom Rukavina
28
John Marty
25
Tom Bakk
13.5
Matt Entenza
4
As noted previously, Uncommitted is winning, although there are definitely "hidden" delegates (those actually supporting one candidate or another) in that big total. As also previously noted, Paul Thissen's total here is a bit inflated due to several counties where his are the only results so far -- although Morrison was one of those until we completed it last night.
Updated grid is below. We're now at 86% coverage -- hopefully we can cover about ten of the remaining fourteen percent by the next round of conventions this weekend.
This was a big weekend in the MN-GOV race. DFLers met at 28 conventions throughout the state. We're doing our utmost to pull in the most accurate information delegate counts that we can (Joe will have more up-to-date numbers pretty soon). The largest group of delegates by far are the uncommitted. Margaret Anderson-Kelliher leads RT Rybak by a few with Paul Thissen trailing in a distant third position. Of course, Margaret leads in superdelegates. So I'm writing to speculate about how all this might play out in Duluth at the end of April.
There is a wild card at play in all of this. The reNEW.MN campaign is getting delegates elected and will have some say in all of this. But what exactly?
RT should make the race closer as I expect he'll do better than Margaret in suburban and excurban areas, i.e., MN-02, MN-03 and MN-06.
Plus, I will consider what Tom Rukavina, John Marty and Paul Thissen might do with their blocks of delegates. Or will they have enough to do anything?
Wild Weekend was...well, wild. More than 500 of 1200 eventual delegates have now been selected -- and we're tracking 77% (415) of those delegates right here.
Of those 415 we now have tracked, here are the totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
176
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
71.5
R.T. Rybak
65.5
Paul Thissen
43.5
Tom Rukavina
26
John Marty
22
Tom Bakk
7.5
Matt Entenza
2
A few general notes about these totals:
In the screenshot below, you'll see where the discrepancies are -- we did extremely well this weekend tracking the Senate District conventions, but we're still missing totals from several County Unit conventions -- if you were at one or know someone who was and can get us accurate totals, let us know
I know for a fact we're missing a few Entenza delegates, but I simply have not been able to get first-hand reports from those conventions (Nobles County, in particular). So his totals are a tad low.
Similarly, because the reports I got from several of last weekend's conventions were from a Thissen supporter (whom I have no reason to believe isn't being accurate with Thissen's totals), his strong third-place showing right now is likely a bit inflated, as we're missing the rest of the delegates from those conventions. HOWEVER, it is clear that Thissen is doing quite well in rural delegate elections given his metro base (witness his strong performance in his home district of SD63).
The other item of note now that we have considerable totals under our belts is the ReNew.mn factor. Technically, the basic "Uncommitted/Renew.mn" subcaucus is uncommitted in the gubernatorial race. In the purest sense that's true; in reality those delegates (at least 24 of them so far) are probably only going to vote for Rybak, Paul Thissen, or MAK -- in that order -- when push comes to shove in Duluth. Also witness that the only named subcaucuses that include ReNew.mn's name are for those three candidates.
It's not against any rules, but we've heard that a few people here and there have been a bit miffed at the organization calling its delegates "uncommitted." On the other hand, they're an advocacy group, and they're doing a good job of pushing their values through the endorsement process. YMMV, as it's said.
A future post will focus on the congressional campaign breakouts -- some interesting items in there as well.
Here's that full spreadsheet -- discrepancies are color-coded at the bottom. A big thanks to the MPP community for helping make this happen -- we're all looking forward to next week's conventions for more of the same!
Fantastic day of result-reporting yesterday -- we are now tracking about 60% of the pledged delegate totals. I'll post the full numbers tomorrow once Wild Weekend is complete, but here's the topline in the gubernatorial race:
Uncommitted is winning, but not by as much as it was last week.
Today's conventions include the following:
Beltrami CU
Faribault CU
Freeborn CU
Mower CU
And we're still looking for results from the following districts:
SD5
SD43
SD46
SD63
Aitkin
Blue Earth
Chisago
Goodhue
Isanti
Kandiyohi
Lac
Qui Parle
Steele
Yellow Medicine
As you'll see when I post the data on Monday, there are still some discrepancies and missing delegates from previously held conventions as well -- if you were in attendance at any of them or know someone who was, let us know.
I can't stress enough how great the MPP community has been on this project -- we're going to be providing some real substantive data on the makeup of the field for all to see before the convention, and I'm pretty sure we're the only ones doing this. We also couldn't do it without you folks out there, so thank you.
Today's local conventions -- where state convention delegates will be elected -- include the following locations:
SD 5 (Hibbing)
SD 16 (Milaca) (CD6)
SD 37 (Rosemount) (CD2)
SD 39 (Mendota Heights)
SD 43 (Plymouth) (CD3)
SD 46 (Brooklyn Center) (CD3)
SD 47 (Coon Rapids) (CD3/CD6)
SD 58 (Minneapolis)
SD 59 (Minneapolis)
SD 60 (Minneapolis)
SD 61 (Minneapolis)
SD 63 (Bloomington) (CD3)
SD 66 (St. Paul)
Atkin CU
Blue Earth CU
Chisago CU
Goodhue CU
Isanti CU
Kandiyohi CU
Lac Qui Parle CU
Steele CU
Waseca CU
Winona CU
Yellow Medicine CU
Along with tomorrow's conventions, more than 300 state convention delegates will be elected -- that's about 25% of the entire elected delegate universe. Obviously, this weekend is a big time for congressional and gubernatorial campaigns.
As previously noted, if you're attending one of these conventions as a delegate or an observer, please try to let us know the full subcaucus names and their delegate totals. We need to know everything about the subcaucuses -- candidate pledges, issues, organizations, etc, and how many delegates each subcaucus gets. Leave the reports in the comments or email us, and we'll track the totals as well as possible.
